Link zum Material: https://www.china-schul-akademie.de/materialien/m-wirtschaft-m3-3
| Autor | Titel | Datum | Einordnung |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urheber*in: Daten: Lowy Institute. Video: Tim Lester | Titel: 2018. The US-China Trade War. Who Dominates Global Trade? | Entstehungsdatum und -ort: 2019 / 2021 | Einordnung: Die Reintegration Chinas in die globalisierte Weltwirtschaft hat zu deutlichen Verschiebungen der globalen Handelsströme zugunsten des Landes im Vergleich zu den USA geführt. Dies zeigt das Video des Materials vom renommierten australischen Lowy Institute. Die Darstellung beginnt 1981, als die Wirtschaftsreformen in China gerade erst begonnen hatten. Nur ein Jahr zuvor waren die ersten vier Sonderwirtschaftszonen zur Öffnung ausländischer Investitionen in Shenzhen 深圳, Xiamen 厦门, Zhuhai 珠海 und Shantou 汕头 gegründet worden. Die Welt ist auf der Karte zu jener Zeit entsprechend fast komplett blau gefärbt, weil die USA in der sich globalisierenden Weltwirtschaft die zentrale Rolle einnahmen. Ab den 1990er-Jahren verschiebt sich das Bild schrittweise. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt stiegen die ausländischen Direktinvestitionen in China stark an (siehe M3.1). Chinas Aufnahme in die Welthandelsorganisation 2001 folgte und baute weitere Handelshürden ab. Insgesamt verdeutlicht die Karte, wie die Volksrepublik (VR) China zunehmend und von Ostasien aus startend in vielen Weltregionen ein immer wichtigerer Handelspartner im Vergleich zu den USA werden. Die Veränderungen sind zeitlich versetzt für Afrika, Osteuropa und weite Teile Lateinamerikas zu beobachten. Nach Alfred Hirschman hat die Bedeutung von Handelsbeziehungen auch wichtige politische Auswirkungen. Firmen mit engen Handelsbeziehungen in ein anderes Land werden bei ihren jeweiligen Regierungen dafür werben, weiterhin enge politische Beziehungen zueinander zu pflegen. Der wirtschaftliche stärkere Staat (in diesem Fall also zunehmend die VR China) profitiert hiervon und kann seine Machtposition dieser These zufolge im internationalen Vergleich erhöhen (Hirschman 1945). Die Grafik wurde 2018, also nach Ausbruch des US-chinesischen Handelskrieges unter der Administration von US-Präsident Donald Trump nach 2016, erstellt. Der Konflikt umfasst gegenseitige Handelssanktionen und seitens der USA ein Abschneiden der VR China von modernster Hochtechnologie (siehe M3.4). Ein Trend zur Versicherheitlichung von Wirtschaftsbeziehungen – „Kooperationen“ werden „Abhängigkeiten“ – ist eng hiermit verbunden. Insofern bleibt angesichts dieser Karte eine offene Frage, wie sich die Staaten der Welt positionieren werden, wenn der bestehende US-chinesische Handelskonflikt sich weiterhin verschärfen sollte. In der Europäischen Union und auch der China-Strategie der deutschen Bundesregierung beantwortet man diese Frage seit einiger Zeit mit dem Begriff des Derisking. Strategische Abhängigkeiten von der VR China sollen abgebaut werden, Zusammenarbeit und Handel aber weiter stattfinden (Europäische Kommission 2023). In Deutschland gibt es in der 2023 vorgestellten China-Strategie ähnliche Abstufungen (Bundesregierung 2023). In den USA hingegen nutzt man häufig den Begriff des Decoupling, der eine Abkopplung beider Volkswirtschaften beschreibt – obwohl diese in der Realität eigentlich auf das engste verflochten sind (siehe M3.5). Sascha Zhivkov, 05.08.2024 Verwendete Literatur
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